UU4777 – “What we can expect this week” by Mnt Goat
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Thanks everyone for your kind words. I will always try to be here to help in the effort to bring you the truth as I know it. The majority of you are truly blessed people.
Today I wanted to give everyone an update on certain matters as they progress concerning the Iraq dinar revaluation process. I hope everyone also read my last news letters dated 01/09 (LINK) since this is a continuation of this ongoing saga.
Please read the entire news letter since it will eliminate much confusion and questions that can easily be answered JUST BY READING THE NEWS LETTER.
Remember I am no longer going to reply to email questions concerning issues I just explained in this news letter or any previous news letter. If you are really concerned about your investment you will then be responsible enough to take the time (as I do) to read the news and absorb it. This is not a date and a rate news letter however if you are smart you can see where all this news is heading.
Today is Jan 12th and surprise, surprise no RV! In my last couple news letters I stated we were in a good window to possibly see the RV from last Thursday thru to Sunday. I based my information on many factors one of which was a targeted “go live” on ISX with international trading.
I stated this since I knew for a fact Iraq was targeting to go live with the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX) global sector and they needed to have a current global rate for the IQD or a rate indicative of a true value to their currency and not this toilet paper rate they have been using since 2003.
We heard about the software changes the ISX needed to go global and the needed connections in order to make it compliant to interface with (talk to) the rest of the international global exchanges. We read articles these software links where put in place and later that they were not yet activated (on –hold). Many of the “intel gurus” at this time also though they were going to go live with it (thus needed an RV rate) but were very disappointed when later they found out it was only a planned software rollout and was never intended to be activated at that time. So this caused more hype and disappointment as we also witnessed this past weekend.
So what really happened this past weekend?
Over this past weekend the plan was to begin trading on this date using the new software links they previously rolled out, as I mentioned above. This was the plan. This was a target they established a month or more ago once they had the new software linkage in place.
You see they are desperately trying to sync up events. You have the gov’t on one hand negotiating oil deals, parliament trying to work through needed legislation, the CBI building up reserves and stabilizing the rate, the finance ministry working with the budget and other matters like ISX completion and so on so forth.
Lots of hands multi tasking, lots of moving parts all trying to get Iraq completed to meet USA and UN satisfaction. Think of Abadi and the two other presidents as the traffic cops and the catalysts and motivators.
Gosh this sounds like real leadership!
The are desperately trying to keep things moving along to make forward movement. But at times one hand (a ministry) does not talk much to the other hand (GOI, parliament or another ministry) and only hopes other events they are working on are also completed on time to sync up with their plan. So you understand?
So this past weekend we witnessed yet another example of bad timing with the finance ministry with ISX planned implementation. So to pacify would-be investors, over this past weekend the finance ministry came out with a note on the ISX screen stating that trading was to be held up due to the economic reforms now in progress. Don’t know if many realize it but this was actually amazing news.
I have translated this note from Arabic to English many times using many different translators and what I present is a rough translation but I think I have it spot on as to what they are trying to tell us. So what does this tell us?
It tells us a couple things. One is we now know that the RV is in fact tied to the ISX currency trading of the Iraq dinar going global. So this is no longer just a rumor. Second we know why the RV did not yet happen as planned this past weekend or on the 11th. It’s all good as the glass is “half full” not “half empty”….lol…..
Rumor (just rumor for now) that Iraq is going to try again on Jan 15th for the global activation of ISX. They will need an RV prior. Will this happen. I do not see a chance in hell of this happening. Just my opinion and I will explain more in this news letter as you see the other items need too.
I want to emphasize the situation in Anbar is still ongoing. The governor or Anbar providence has arrived back already from the USA from talks about further support. The USA has obligated many weapons, ammo and most important more advisors (up to 500 more) to assist in the effort. Are they really advisors? My prediction is we should see this Anbar situation begin to wind down soon.
Many articles are now coming out about this situation. Anbar is a sore spot for the former prime minister Maliki since it was the beginning of the major peaceful protesting that turned into rioting against his government’s policies. Anbar is where the attacks on 150+ civilians occurred with merciless shootings and “barrel” bombs released from helicopters on the protesting crowds by his security forces and the Iraqi Army. Do you remember this mess?
This was the breaking point for the citizens. Soon after this event a list of demands was delivered to the government of Maliki. The number one demand was for Maliki to step down. Other demands included the full implementation of the Erbil agreement and many of the reforms we have seen recently implemented (or planned) since but by the new Abadi government.
To make a long story short since these protests, Maliki’s security forces cracked down on Anbar and has had control over it ever since. When ISIS and DAASH infiltrated he gladly turned over the providence to them. This is basically how ISIS got control over this area. It is time to rid ISIS of these terrorist. They soon will be free of them and begin building their own “FREE” decentralized security forces to deal with any improper takeover from the centralized government in the future. This has been the plan for all the major provinces. This is hoped will prevent such centralized power in the hands of the GOI and abuse of the provinces.
So this is where we stand currently in Anbar. Mosul also is winding down now and many of the forces defending that providence are to be moving in the Anbar region to fight. These were the two last strongholds for ISIS. Abadi has vowed to rid Iraq of ISIS in the near future and I totally believe he will fully accomplish his goals.
These 26 generals too we hear in the news about Amnesty (or lack of Amnesty) demands by USA are involved in this massacre. They have spilt blood on Iraqi countrymen on their hands along with the one on top who gave the orders…..Maliki. Amnesty will not apply to anyone who spilt blood of a citizen.
Ongoing 2015 Budget Saga Update
As we heard Jubouri and Abadi are constantly pushing to get this 2015 budget done and implemented. For the first time in 8 years they want a budget to operate the government by. The USA is also demanding it. Let there be no misunderstanding. The USA will not complete a currency reform with Iraq until they have a workable budget accepted my the majority (which means passed by parliament).
Let me also settle the ongoing dilemma many have in their minds about the budget and RV connection.
Let me only state this one more time since I have repeatedly ironed this out already in many of my past news letters. Please stop listening to this other garbage and hype concerning this topic and you will not get confused. You are confusing yourselves !
So here it is one more time:
- first of all the budget does not need an RV to be implemented. If they wanted they could easily open the budget now as is and begin spending it at the current dinar rate (1166ish), but it must first be passed by parliament and posted in the Gazette to be legal. There is no RV’d rate in the budget !
- However having said this Iraq would luv to sync up events and pop out the RV in timing for the implementation of the budget but it is not really needed. But the Budget is not the lone event they are attempting to sync up. There are other items too and I have talked about these many times. We now see article 140 is on the hot bed. I will discuss this later in this news letter. Would an RV be nice- yet is would give them much more buying power too on all these upcoming projects scheduled for 2015.
- The budget is only being stalled from a final vote based on issues. Part of it was the deficit reductions they required. With the fluctuating oil prices it is making it hard to manage. They already had the two official, required readings. I am hearing they do not intend to have a 3rd reading and will go to a voting session next. This could happen this week and probably will.
- Since the second reading, the opposition is nitpicking any early budget agreement and wants to stall it for political reasons. These are of course still Maliki’s goons in parliament, same old tactics from the past. However there will come an end point to these changes and I believe it has been reached. They will not have their way.
- House Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, said at a news conference on Sunday that on Monday Jan 12th will be the end of the revisions from the second reading of the budget law. They are not going around and around again with this budget. This is excellent news.
- Iraq can do whatever they damn well please with the budget. Investors are not going to dictate to them how they will handle this budget just because they want an RV. They have never officially announced or opened a completed budget in the past but they still continue to operate and pay bills. They might just do the same now in 2015. Who the hell knows? We only know what they are telling us and noone has a crystal ball.
But if you have some common sense and USE IT it helps to figure it all out. I do not think this old approach from the last 4 years with the budgets is however the path they now desire to take since the USA and IMF are forcing a formal operating budget from them. Jubouri and Abadi are allowing these revisions since they vowed to have a non-sectarian government and so this is proving it to the world once again. However enough is enough and they are about to crack down and complete it. Don’t believe me? Wait you will see.
Article 140 Update
Excellent, excellent news on this long awaited topic came out this past weekend. I am assuming everyone knows that the article 140 issue is called “article 140” issue because it was written in their constitution in article 140 how to handle the disputed oil rich regions on the boarder between Iraq and its neighbors. Oil is not the only reason though. These contested areas are full of immigrants who settled in these regions, mostly of Kurd nationality. But it is really the oil everyone wants and is concerned over. Also in reality the constitution clearly states how to handle these disputes only they do not yet have any sound legislation to implement for a workable solution in the real world.
So low and behold this past weekend president Masuom came onboard and requested Abadi begin to address this issue and get this legislation going. I have been waiting a long time for this news. Why did he do this?
He now came out because the USA once again this past week told Iraq this item is still high on the priority list of items to get done prior to completing economic reforms. They will need to form a committee to do this work. I believe we will shortly read about this in the upcoming articles about this new committee and its agenda for the next sessions of parliament. This is something now to watch for and track in the news. This is the last big piece to this puzzle (not the only piece) to get moving on for economic reform completion.